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Bitcoin

298 posts

Bitcoin analysis, price predictions, and BTC ecosystem news.

SEC cleared BTC as a commodity. The dot plot is what's next.

SEC classified BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP as digital commodities in 2026. What the June FOMC dot plot means for crypto prices.

MSTR hit a BTC discount. Who profits — and who doesn't.

MSTR at 18% below its BTC reserve: mNAV mechanics, Monday 8-K signals, short thesis, and which trader profiles fit.

A ceasefire sent BTC above $66K. $4 billion left ETFs anyway.

BTC broke $66K on the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, June 15, 2026. ETF outflows, rally patterns, and a trader decision framework.

7 million BTC have their keys on-chain. No hack needed yet.

7M BTC exposed via address reuse and P2PK, including exchange cold wallets. Coinbase board bull, bear, base case.

Metaplanet just became a securities firm. Here's the thesis.

Metaplanet's ¥2.1B Siiibo acquisition buys a Type I securities license, opening BTC yield product distribution in Japan.

Fear & Greed bottomed at 5 — why that's not a clean buy signal

Bitcoin off 52% from peak, Fear & Greed at 5, altcoin season at 39. Framework for 2026 risk and portfolio positioning.

Japan passed crypto reform. The 55% tax lasts until 2028.

Japan's Lower House passed FIEA crypto reclassification June 11. The 20% tax and spot ETFs remain 2027–2028 targets.

BTC at $61K while stablecoin dominance prints a golden cross

USDT.D at 8.45%, up 84% this year, just printed a golden cross — a historically bearish signal for Bitcoin price.

Morgan Stanley's $5M BTC-to-ETF path buys no new bitcoin

Morgan Stanley clients can now lend BTC, ETH, or SOL to Galaxy Digital and receive spot ETP shares — with a $5M minimum.

The 200WMA called every bear bottom. Then 2022 happened.

BTC tagged the 200WMA near $61k in June 2026. Bull, bear, and base cases with on-chain signals and prior cycle data.

Strategy burned 60% of its safety net to retire debt — then sold Bitcoin

Strategy's $1.38B convertible note buyback drained its USD reserve, then a token 32-BTC sale signaled conditional monetization. Here's what the capital loop looks like now.

$1.8B liquidated in 24 hours — and 89% were longs

Bitcoin dropped 8% to a nine-week low near $65,360 on June 3, 2026, as U.S.-Iran military strikes, $519M in ETF outflows, and crowded long leverage combined to trigger the largest liquidation event since February.