Bitcoin, whale activity declines... 'watch for a repeat of 2020's parabolic rally'

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a decrease in whale activity since before its halving. Cryptocurrency media outlet NewsBTC reported on on-chain data shared by analyst Ali Martinez that showed a decrease in Bitcoin whale activity over the past six weeks. Martinez cited Santiment's whaling aggregation metric, which analyzes Bitcoin transactions worth $100,000 to $1 million.

Martinez said the whales' volume began to decline when the price of Bitcoin hit a new high of $73,737. Recently, he noted that even though whale volume has declined, the Bitcoin network has surged, suggesting that demand for Bitcoin is high, which could fuel a price rally.

The crypto strategist, who goes by the pseudonym TechDev, presented a two-month chart of Bitcoin, arguing that the price has already begun an explosive rally. He raised the possibility of a repeat of the parabolic rally seen in late 2020, when Bitcoin surged from $29,000 to $130,000 in two months. TechDev cited Bitcoin's two-month moving average above the candlestick high and its relative strength index (RSI) on the verge of breaking above 70 as evidence to support an accelerating parabolic rally.

Cryptocurrency publication The Daily Ho noted Techdev's assertion, pointing out that Bitcoin had recorded parabolic rallies in 2013, 2016, and 2020 when the RSI hit the 70 level. TechDev also noted that the Bollinger Bands Width bottomed out at the time, which is also a predictor of explosive price gains.

However, TechDev warned that the $60,000 support level has been vulnerable to pullbacks recently after multiple tests. “There is a possibility of a return to the previous levels below $60,000,” he said. The more frequent the $60,000 test, the more likely the downside,” he said. However, he added that he would be satisfied if the bulls could recover $68,000 in a scenario that would invalidate the $60,000 breakdown or prove that they have recovered after losing the current support area.