Bitcoin Trend Shift: BTC New Investor Influx Not Yet In Full Swing, Peaks Far Away
On-chain analyst Crypto Dan writes: "Bitcoin's realized market capitalization and UTXO life distribution metrics show that there hasn't been a full influx of new investors. We're still a long way from the top of the bull market." In other words, we haven't seen a frenzy of investment by retail investors outside of whale-level institutions.
Meanwhile, Matt_Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager and bitcoin spot ETF issuer Bitwise, wrote in an investment note to clients that "we are entering a new era of price discovery for bitcoin." "In the past, BTC was only tradable by a select few, mainly retail investors, tech professionals and others. This is different now. Big money investors like financial advisors, family offices, and institutional investors all have access to BTC. For example, imagine what would happen to housing prices if 100 ultra-high-net-worth individuals bought a house instead of the average person. Global money managers alone hold $115 trillion in assets. Until last year, this money couldn't flow into BTC. With the launch of the BTC Spot ETF, even a 1% inflow of these assets under management would be significant. Even 1% represents the current market capitalization of BTC.
Bitcoin has just gone through its IPO and the market is looking for the right price," said Mr. Khan. "In particular, BTC spot ETFs have captured more than 100% of the BTC mined today to meet demand. In order to balance supply and demand, existing BTC holders need to dump their holdings into the market. On-chain data showing BTC movement by long-term holders (on a 12-month basis) is near a five-year low. 70% of the BTC supply has been sitting idle for over a year. The question is at what price will existing BTC holders be willing to sell their BTC, assuming the buying behavior of the BTC spot ETFs continues".
