Bitcoin spent most of August 2026 grinding sideways below $65,000, then ripped higher fast enough to flip a widely-watched on-chain regime gauge from bearish to bullish in seven days. The gauge in question is CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index — and its reversal is the single data point driving the current "new bull market" headlines.
What Is CryptoQuant's Bull Score, and Why Did It Jump to 80?
The Bull Score Index is CryptoQuant's proprietary composite of 10 on-chain, market and valuation metrics scored from 0 to 100, where any reading above 60 denotes bullish conditions. In late August 2026 it jumped from 30 to 80 in a single week — the fastest one-week increase in a year and the highest reading since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $124,000 . That reversal is what prompted the South Korea-based analytics firm to declare Bitcoin in the "initial phase" of a new bull market .
Quick Answer: CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index — a 0–100 composite of 10 on-chain and market metrics — rose from 30 to 80 in one week in late August 2026, its fastest jump in a year, with 8 of 10 indicators bullish. CryptoQuant says confirmation still requires a decisive break above roughly $83,000.
What sits inside the score matters as much as the headline number. Eight of the index's 10 underlying indicators were flashing bullish at the time of the report , which is why the firm framed the shift as broad rather than driven by one outlier metric.
- Scale: 0–100 composite; readings above 60 are classified as bullish.
- Inputs: 10 on-chain, market and valuation metrics.
- Move: 30 → 80 in one week — fastest one-week rise in a year .
- Breadth: 8 of 10 sub-indicators bullish.
- Precedent: Last seen October 6, 2025, with BTC near $124,000.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's Head of Research, framed the reversal as broad-based rather than driven by a single outlier metric (source: The Block, 2026-08).
One caveat belongs in the same breath as the score itself: CryptoQuant attached a falsifiable condition to the call. The signal is a regime flip, not a confirmation, and the firm ties confirmation to a decisive move above roughly $83,000 . Independent daily market data put Bitcoin near $78,880 on August 26, still below the same $83,000 resistance (source: Yahoo Finance, 2026-08).
Why $83,000 Is the Line Between 'Signaled' and 'Confirmed'
The $83,000 threshold is Bitcoin's 365-day moving average, and CryptoQuant treats a cross above it as the mechanical start of a bull market. That average sat near $83,000–$83,100 in late August 2026, while Bitcoin closed around $79,000 — roughly 5% below the line . The regime has flipped; the confirmation has not printed.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, laid out the rule plainly:
"Historically, bitcoin's bull markets have 'officially' begun when price crosses above its 365-day moving average," — Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant (source: The Block, 2026-08)
The inverse applies too: crossing below the same average is how the firm dates bear markets. That symmetry is why CryptoQuant's own wording is conditional — "A decisive break above $83K would confirm the new bull market; until then, that level is likely to act as an initial resistance" .
Three details decide whether a break counts:
- Weekly close, not an intraday wick. Coverage of the report stresses that a weekly close above the 365-day average is the confirmation trigger; a brief tag of $83K during a session does not qualify .
- The average moves. The 365-day line is a rolling figure, so the exact confirmation price drifts as older candles roll off.
- An overhead cap sits below it. The 50-week moving average, at roughly $81,081, capped the August rally and produced a rejection before the $83,000 test was reached (source: Investing.com, 2026-08).
Until that weekly close lands, the honest description is a bullish signal awaiting confirmation — not a confirmed bull market.
The Rally and Demand Data Behind the Call
The move that flipped the score was a roughly 24% rally from Bitcoin's August 17 low, carrying price to an intraday peak of $81,272 — its highest level since May 15, 2026 (source: BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance, 2026-08). Underneath the price action, CryptoQuant described the healthiest demand configuration in almost a year, which is why the firm treated the bounce as a regime change rather than a relief rally (source: The Block, 2026-08).
Three demand and macro data points carried the call:
- Spot demand acceleration. Apparent spot demand grew at its fastest monthly pace since late December .
- Spot and futures expanding together. Both sides grew simultaneously for the first time since early October 2025 .
- Macro tailwinds. The U.S. Treasury planned to double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9, and President Trump hinted the government may consider purchasing Bitcoin .
That combination matters because a leverage-only advance tends to unwind quickly. CryptoQuant read the pairing as genuine spot accumulation with leveraged demand returning alongside it, not a derivatives-driven squeeze (source: Cointelegraph, 2026-08). Independent daily market data tracked the same path, putting Bitcoin near $78,880 on August 26 after the rebound from the sub-$65,000 range earlier in the month (source: Yahoo Finance, 2026-08).
The Overheating Warning Attached to the Bullish Call
CryptoQuant paired its bull-market call with an explicit short-term overheating warning, and both halves of the report are load-bearing. Traders' unrealized profit margin — the aggregate paper gain held across the network — climbed to 20.5%, the highest reading since June 2025 . Elevated paper profit is the fuel for distribution, not a sell signal on its own.
The precedent is specific. Bitcoin fell roughly 30% after that same metric hit 19% in early May 2026, when BTC traded near $82,000 . The current reading sits above that trigger, at a price hovering under the same resistance band (source: The Block, 2026-08).
Three realized-profit and flow readings back the caution:
- Whale profit-taking: short-term-holder whales realized about $1.2 billion between August 20 and August 22 .
- Single-day record: $614 million of that came on August 20 alone .
- Exchange inflows: roughly 53,000 BTC moved onto exchanges, the highest since June 5 and typically read as distribution intent .
The same inflow pattern showed up across assets: about 1.7 million ETH, also a post-June 5 high, and roughly 460 million XRP, the largest since February (source: FXStreet, 2026-08). Coins on exchanges are coins available to sell — a regime signal turning bullish does not remove the risk of a sharp drawdown first.
What to Watch Next: The Levels That Confirm or Reject the Bull Case
The next confirmation test sits in a narrow band between $82,820 and roughly $83,100 . That band stacks two independent markers: the May 2026 swing high of $82,820 and CryptoQuant's 365-day moving average near $83,100 . A weekly close above it converts a signal into confirmation; anything less leaves the bull call conditional.
"A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000," — Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group (source: Cointelegraph, 2026-08).
One obstacle already proved itself: the 50-week moving average near $81,000 capped the rally and produced a rejection before price reached the $83,000 test .
The downside ladder is equally specific:
- ~$70,000 — the short-term-holder cost basis Glassnode treats as the first real floor .
- $62,000–$65,000 — the deeper structural floor beneath it .
| Level | Type | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | Upside target | Kruger's next major objective if the $82.8K zone clears |
| $82,820–$83,100 | Confluence resistance | May 2026 high plus the 365-day average — the confirmation line |
| ~$81,000 | 50-week average | Already rejected one attempt at the $83K test |
| ~$70,000 | STH cost basis | Glassnode's first genuine floor |
| $62,000–$65,000 | Structural floor | Deeper support if $70K fails |
The practical takeaway: treat $83,000 as the switch and $81,000 — the 50-week average that already rejected one attempt — as the immediate tripwire. Until a weekly close resolves one of them, the bull score reading describes conditions, not an outcome.
Frequently asked questions
What is CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index?
The Bull Score Index is CryptoQuant's proprietary composite gauge that blends 10 on-chain, market and valuation metrics into a single 0–100 reading, where anything above 60 is treated as bullish territory. In late August 2026 the score jumped from 30 to 80 in one week — its fastest weekly increase in a year and its highest reading since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $124,000 . Eight of the 10 underlying indicators were flashing bullish at the time of the report . Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's Head of Research, summarized it as "basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market" (source: The Block, 2026-08).
Has Bitcoin's bull market officially been confirmed?
No. CryptoQuant framed its call as signaled but not confirmed, and attached a specific condition: a decisive weekly close above the 365-day moving average, which sat near $83,000–$83,100 at the time of the report . Bitcoin closed around $79,000 when the call was published — roughly 5% below that long-term average . Coverage also stressed that an intraday wick above the level does not count; the confirmation signal is a weekly close (source: Cointelegraph, 2026-08).
Why does $83,000 matter specifically?
$83,000 is where Bitcoin's 365-day moving average sat in late August 2026, and CryptoQuant uses that average as its historical dividing line: bull markets have "officially" begun when price crosses above it, bear markets when price falls below . The level gains weight because it overlaps with the May 2026 cycle high of $82,820, creating an $82.8K–$83.1K confluence zone . CryptoQuant's own wording: "A decisive break above $83K would confirm the new bull market; until then, that level is likely to act as an initial resistance" (source: FXStreet, 2026-08).
Is the bullish call undercut by overheating signals?
Not undercut, but explicitly qualified — CryptoQuant published the overheating warning alongside the bullish reading. Traders' unrealized profit margin reached 20.5%, the highest since June 2025, and the firm noted Bitcoin fell roughly 30% after that metric hit 19% in early May, when BTC traded near $82,000 . Short-term-holder whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and August 22, including a single-day record $614 million on August 20 . Sentiment was already stretched: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index eased to 65 on August 26 after peaking near 74 the day before (source: Yahoo Finance, 2026-08).
What happens if Bitcoin breaks above $83,000?
A weekly close above the $82,800–$83,100 confluence zone would satisfy CryptoQuant's confirmation condition and shift the debate from "is this a bull market" to "how far does it run." LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger said "a clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000" (source: Cointelegraph, 2026-08). One structural obstacle sits just below: the 50-week moving average near $81,000 capped the August rally and produced a rejection before the $83,000 test .
Enjoyed this article? Subscribe to get new stories by email whenever they're published.
