Galaxy Digital just moved its odds on the biggest U.S. crypto bill in a decade — and the direction is down. In roughly six weeks, the firm's research team has walked its passage estimate from confident to a coin flip.
How Far Have the Odds Fallen — and What Do Markets Say?
Galaxy Research now puts the probability that the CLARITY Act passes in 2026 at 50%, down from 60% in early June and 75% in May . That is three downgrades in about six weeks. The cut, announced by Galaxy's head of firmwide research Alex Thorn in late June 2026, reflects a shrinking legislative calendar rather than fading support for the bill .
Quick Answer: Galaxy Research cut its 2026 CLARITY Act passage odds to 50% in late June — down from 60% in early June and 75% in May. The downgrade reflects a narrowing Senate calendar, not lost support. Polymarket traders are more bearish, pricing passage near 41–49%.
Thorn framed the number as realistic, not gloomy. "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50," he said, adding that "for a bill of this magnitude and complexity, 50-50 are pretty good odds" . It reads as a deliberate counter to doom-heavy interpretations of the move.
Prediction markets are less generous. Polymarket traders priced passage at roughly 41–49% around the downgrade date, below Galaxy's estimate and down sharply from about 82% in February 2026 as the Senate schedule deteriorated .
Crucially, Galaxy calls its 50% figure path-dependent. A unified Banking-Agriculture text plus a July floor vote could push the odds back above 60%; a July with no concrete action is expected to send them lower .
Why the Senate Calendar Is the Actual Problem
The math that sank Galaxy's estimate is procedural, not political. The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to clear the Senate floor, yet only two Democrats backed it when the Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9 in May 2026 . Roughly seven Democratic crossovers are still required to break the 60-vote threshold — support that does not yet exist on paper.
Process is the other half of the problem. As of the downgrade, no floor date had been scheduled and no motion to proceed had been filed . Before any vote can happen, the Banking and Agriculture committees still need to publish a single merged CLARITY text — a step that had not been completed.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, laid out how many gates remain:
"For a 60-vote bill that still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and then House action on whatever the Senate produces, the runway is quickly declining into just a matter of weeks," — Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital (source: The Block).
That runway is genuinely short. The Senate ran a compressed work period of roughly June 30–July 10 ahead of an August recess that stretches from about August 8 to September 14 . That leaves weeks of floor availability, not months.
Crypto also is not first in line. Several priorities sit ahead of it in the queue :
- Reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA
- The fiscal-2027 National Defense Authorization Act, treated as must-pass
- A backlog of pending nominations
- A contested housing bill, stalled after President Trump refused to sign it until Congress passes the SAVE Act
The July Deadline: What Has to Happen in the Next Few Weeks
The next few weeks act as a hard checkpoint for the CLARITY Act. Galaxy Digital flagged that Senate Majority Leader John Thune needed to announce floor time for the bill by early July . Without that signal, consideration is expected to slip to September — the point where the calculus changes sharply.
Three concrete things have to fall into place:
- A merged text: the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees must publish a unified draft. Senator Cynthia Lummis and others flagged around July 4 as a target as of late June .
- A floor commitment: a scheduled motion to proceed, which had not been set at the time of the downgrade .
- Resolved policy gaps: Democrats led by Senator Elizabeth Warren are pushing ethics provisions covering President Trump's crypto ventures, while banks and law-enforcement groups oppose stablecoin yield rules and cite illicit-finance concerns .
None of these are trivial, and they stack on top of a queue where crypto is not first. If July passes without a concrete floor commitment, Galaxy expects the odds to keep declining . Entry into September pulls the bill into midterm-election dynamics, where lawmakers grow reluctant to cast controversial votes — the deadline risk that makes these weeks decisive.
What to Watch: Bull Case, Bear Case, and Key Signals
The next few weeks split into two clear paths. In the bull case, the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees publish a unified CLARITY text in early July, Majority Leader John Thune schedules floor time, and Galaxy's own guidance says the estimate could rebound above 60% from its current 50% . That path keeps the vote clear of the recess and the midterm calendar.
In the bear case, no floor commitment lands before the August recess (roughly August 8–September 14), pushing consideration into September . Both Galaxy and HashKey's Tim Sun flag that midterm-cycle territory as materially harder, since lawmakers grow reluctant to cast controversial votes .
Polymarket works as a real-time crowd signal against Galaxy's 50% benchmark. Traders priced passage near 41–49% around the downgrade, down from about 82% in February . A sustained spread below 45% would suggest the July window is closing.
Three concrete signals are worth tracking:
- A public Thune floor announcement — the single gating event Galaxy tied to its early-July deadline .
- Official release of the merged Banking-Agriculture text — Senators Cynthia Lummis and others pointed to a draft around July 4 .
- Any Democratic co-sponsors beyond the current two — the bill needs seven Democrats to clear the 60-vote threshold .
The takeaway: this is a scheduling race, not a referendum on the policy. Watch July for a text and a floor date. If both land, 50% is a floor; if neither does, it is a ceiling.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Galaxy Research cut CLARITY Act odds to 50%?
Galaxy Research cut its 2026 passage odds to 50% because of timing, not policy. Head of firmwide research Alex Thorn cited a rapidly narrowing Senate calendar: a short floor window before the August recess, no scheduled vote, and no merged Banking-Agriculture text. It marked the third downgrade since May 2026, falling from 75% in May and 60% in early June.
What is the CLARITY Act and why does it matter for crypto markets?
The CLARITY Act is the first comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets. It splits oversight between the CFTC and the SEC and defines when a token is a commodity versus a security, ending years of jurisdictional ambiguity . It passed the House in July 2025 but remains stuck in Senate floor scheduling, keeping it the single most consequential piece of crypto legislation for U.S. traders.
What happens if the CLARITY Act misses the 2026 window?
If the bill misses 2026, it likely pushes into a post-midterm Congress with reshuffled committees and reset priorities, forcing negotiations to restart. Galaxy warns that a slip into September would collide with midterm dynamics that make lawmakers reluctant to cast controversial votes . In practice, that means continued regulatory uncertainty for U.S. exchanges, DeFi protocols, and token issuers well into 2027.
Why does the CLARITY Act need 60 Senate votes?
The 60-vote threshold is the Senate cloture rule required to end debate and proceed to a floor vote. That makes bipartisan buy-in the critical bottleneck. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026, but only two Democrats backed it — short of the seven crossover votes needed to overcome a filibuster.
Are prediction markets more or less optimistic than Galaxy Research?
Prediction markets are more pessimistic. Around Galaxy's downgrade, Polymarket traders priced passage at roughly 41–49%, below Galaxy's 50% estimate. Both figures sit well beneath Polymarket's February 2026 high near 82%, underscoring how sharply sentiment eroded as the Senate calendar tightened.
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