Bitcoin's Price Plummets: Bears Eye $100K as Support Levels Tested Amidst Heavy Selling

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing intense selling pressure, with its price hovering precariously close to critical support levels. Recent slumps have raised concerns among traders and analysts about the potential for a deeper sell-off, challenging historical seasonal bullish expectations and testing the resilience of key price zones.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure, with prices testing crucial support zones around $107,000-$110,000.
Long-term holders and whales are reportedly offloading positions, contributing to the downward trend.
Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with potential downside targets as low as $100,000 or even $82,000 if support fails.
Despite the current downturn, some traders are looking at historical patterns from 2020 and 2024 for signs of a potential recovery.
The Bitcoin network's hashrate saw a slight decrease in early October, according to JPMorgan.

Critical Support Levels Under Threat

Bitcoin's price has been unable to sustain gains above a critical trendline connecting highs from 2017 and 2021, marking the third instance of bulls failing to hold this level. This persistent resistance suggests a potential for a deeper drop, with analysts identifying the $107,000 to $110,000 range as a pivotal support zone. This area is further reinforced by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $107,500. A failure to hold this zone could expose BTC to further declines, with initial support potentially at $98,330, followed by the lower end of an ascending channel near $82,000.

Intensifying Selling Pressure from Key Holders

On-chain data indicates that long-term holders (LTHs), defined as those holding BTC for 155 days or more, are increasingly selling their positions. This cohort, holding approximately 14.5 million BTC, has sold over 300,000 BTC since the end of June, with significant profit-taking observed since the beginning of October. Furthermore, whales, entities holding over 10,000 BTC, are identified as primary distributors, consistently being net sellers since August. This distribution activity from major holders contrasts with smaller cohorts (under 1,000 BTC) who remain net accumulators.

Bearish Technical Signals and Historical Parallels

Technical analysis reveals several bearish signals. The repeated failure to break and sustain gains above the 2017-2021 trendline, coupled with long wicks on recent monthly candles, suggests bull fatigue. Monthly MACD histograms are showing weakening upward momentum, and daily charts indicate a sharp reversal from expanding channel resistance. These factors collectively point towards a downward path, with the possibility of testing sub-$100,000 levels. However, some traders are drawing parallels to similar sharp sell-offs in 2020, 2021, and 2024, which were followed by recoveries, offering a glimmer of hope for a potential rebound.

Network Hashrate Shows Slight Dip

In contrast to price action, the Bitcoin network hashrate experienced a modest decline in the first two weeks of October. JPMorgan reported a drop of 5 exahashes per second (EH/s) to an average of 1,030 EH/s. This pullback follows record highs seen in August and September. Despite the slight decrease, U.S.-listed miners tracked by the bank saw their combined market capitalization rise significantly, outperforming BTC over the period.