Fear & Greed Index Hits 8 as Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $3.8 Billion in 5 Weeks — February 24 Crypto Market Briefing

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 8 out of 100. Over $468 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin spot ETFs have hemorrhaged $3.8 billion across five consecutive weeks. As of February 24, 2026, the cryptocurrency market is enduring its most severe fear cycle since the FTX collapse of 2022.

As of 13:13 KST on February 24, the total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.27 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 55.9% and Ethereum dominance at 9.7%. On Binance, BTC is trading at $63,115 — down 2.94% in 24 hours — after sliding from a weekend high of $66,600 to a session low of $63,101. That places Bitcoin roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Today's Spoted Crypto market briefing breaks down the critical data points driving this historic fear cycle.

Twenty-two consecutive days of "Extreme Fear." Record-setting ETF capital flight. A single $61.5 million whale position liquidated on HTX. And yet, in the same breath, institutional whales are quietly accumulating tens of thousands of BTC. The signals are contradictory, the stakes are enormous, and the market demands careful analysis — not panic.

Key Takeaways

• Fear & Greed Index at 8/100: 22 consecutive days of extreme fear — a reading seen only three times since 2018 (August 2019, June 2022, February 2026). Comparable to the FTX collapse and COVID crash periods.
• Bitcoin ETF 5-week outflow streak: $3.8 billion: The longest outflow run since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. BlackRock's IBIT alone lost $2.13B; Fidelity's FBTC shed $954M.
• 24-hour liquidations: $468 million: 137,422 traders liquidated, with long positions comprising 93% ($434M) of the total. The largest single liquidation was a $61.5M BTC position on HTX.
• BTC at $63,115 on Binance: Down 50% from the October 2025 ATH of $126,000. The 14-day RSI has fallen below 30 for only the third time in Bitcoin's history.
• Strategy's 100th BTC purchase: The company added 592 BTC ($39.8M), bringing total holdings to 717,722 BTC — but sits on an estimated $6.5B+ unrealized loss at current prices.
• Whale divergence: Large wallets (10,000–100,000 BTC) accumulated over 70,000 BTC in February, while a single whale deposited 6,318 BTC ($425M) to Binance — a potential sell signal.
• Expert forecasts range from $28,000 to bullish: Stifel targets $38,000, Bloomberg Intelligence revised down to $28,000, while VanEck sees a compelling 1–2 year entry window.

Fear & Greed at 8 — After 22 Days of Extreme Fear, Is This the Bottom?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 8/100 on February 24, up a marginal 3 points from the previous day but still deep within "Extreme Fear" territory. This marks 22 consecutive days below the 25-point threshold, a streak that according to CryptBull has occurred only three times since the index was introduced in 2018 — August 2019, June 2022 during the FTX meltdown, and now February 2026.

The historical pattern at these extremes is instructive but not immediately comforting. When the index dropped to 6 during the FTX crisis in June 2022, Bitcoin spent roughly four months grinding between $16,000 and $20,000 before staging a meaningful recovery in early 2023. During the COVID shock of March 2020, the index briefly touched single digits before a rapid rebound that launched one of the most powerful bull runs in crypto history. As CoinDesk noted, current levels are consistent with "seller exhaustion" — but exhaustion and recovery are not the same thing.

Reinforcing the oversold thesis, Bitcoin's 14-day RSI has fallen below 30 for only the third time in its history, per CoinDesk analysis. In January 2015, the RSI hit 28 when BTC traded near $200 — eight months of sideways consolidation followed before any sustained uptrend. In December 2018, RSI dipped below 30 at $3,500 and required approximately three months of accumulation before breaking higher. The takeaway: RSI extremes like these have historically preceded recoveries, but those recoveries began with months of range-bound trading, not immediate bounces.

One critical nuance: while the current 50% drawdown from ATH is severe, it remains milder than the 76% decline in 2022 or the 83% crash in 2018. Whether that reflects structural maturation of the market or simply means more downside is ahead is the central question dividing analysts right now. For deeper chart analysis and real-time insights, visit Spoted Crypto Premium Analysis.

Binance & OKX Market Snapshot — Where the Volume Is Flowing

As of February 24 at 13:13 KST, global exchange data reveals a market gravitating toward safety. On Binance, the top volume slot belongs to USDC at $2.14 billion — a stablecoin leading volume charts is a classic risk-off signal, as traders park capital in dollar-pegged assets rather than speculate on volatile tokens.

BTC followed at $1.76 billion in 24-hour volume, trading at $63,115 after a 2.94% decline from a $66,600 high. ETH recorded $867 million in volume at $1,820, down 2.40%. Notably, gold-backed PAXG bucked the trend with a +0.13% gain at $5,188 — another flight-to-safety indicator — while BNB held essentially flat at $590.

On OKX, the picture is consistent: BTC led at $691M in volume ($63,128, -2.37%), followed by ETH at $431M ($1,820, -1.96%) and SOL at $123M ($76.40, -1.94%). The gold-backed XAUT token on OKX saw $33.6M in volume, reinforcing the cross-exchange trend toward hard-asset hedges. SUI stood out on the downside among OKX altcoins, dropping 3.15% — one of the steepest single-day declines in the top 10.

The dominance of stablecoins (USDC and USD1 claiming the #1 and #3 volume positions on Binance) is the clearest signal from exchange data: traders are not rotating into altcoins during this dip. They are rotating into dollars. This pattern typically intensifies before it reverses, and historically marks the later stages of a capitulation cycle. Spoted Crypto tracks these volume rotations in real time across all major exchanges.

Kimchi Premium: Korea's Sentiment Thermometer

The Kimchi Premium — the price differential between Korean exchanges and global markets — sits at +1.91% for BTC and +1.74% for ETH. During the 2021 bull market, this premium surged to 10–20% as Korean retail demand outstripped global liquidity. In deep bear markets, the premium has occasionally turned negative, indicating Korean sellers willing to dump below global prices. At 1.91%, the current reading is neutral to mildly positive — Korean investors haven't fully capitulated, but they aren't aggressively buying the dip either. It's a wait-and-see posture that aligns with the broader global sentiment.

Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $3.8 Billion in Historic 5-Week Outflow Streak

The institutional exodus from Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached historic proportions. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling $3.8 billion — the longest outflow streak since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Year-to-date, total net outflows have reached $4.5 billion, which Yahoo Finance described as "the worst start since launch."

The scale of the damage is concentrated in the two largest products. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — widely considered the bellwether for institutional Bitcoin sentiment — shed $2.13 billion over the five-week period. IBIT had been the primary engine of inflows since launch, making its sustained hemorrhaging especially significant. Fidelity's FBTC followed with $954 million in outflows over the same period.

There is a silver lining within the data, however. The first two weeks accounted for $2.82 billion — 74% of the total outflow — while the most recent three weeks averaged around $340 million each. The decelerating outflow pace suggests the initial panic selling is subsiding. In a comparable episode in February 2025, a five-week outflow streak totaling $5 billion was followed by BTC declining further to $75,000 before eventually stabilizing. Given that BTC has already fallen below that level at $63,115, some of that selling pressure may already be priced in.

The critical trigger to watch is a weekly net inflow — particularly from IBIT. Any sign that BlackRock's fund is attracting capital again would be the most concrete evidence of institutional sentiment turning. Until then, the ETF data paints a picture of systematic institutional de-risking. For ongoing ETF flow tracking and analysis, check Spoted Crypto's daily market updates.

$468 Million Liquidated in 24 Hours — What 93% Long Liquidations Reveal

The leveraged derivatives market continues to punish bullish bets. According to CoinDesk, $468 million in positions were forcibly liquidated over the past 24 hours, affecting 137,422 traders. The staggering detail: 93% of those liquidations — $434 million — were long positions. Traders betting on a bounce were overwhelmingly on the wrong side.

By asset, BTC accounted for $214 million of the liquidations, ETH contributed $114 million, and SOL added $20 million. The headline event was a single $61.5 million BTC-USDT long position liquidated on HTX (formerly Huobi) — the largest individual liquidation in the 24-hour window. A position of that magnitude strongly implies an institutional-grade player or large whale whose leveraged bet was vaporized by the downturn.

Zooming out across February, the trajectory is actually improving from a market-health perspective. The $2.2 billion "Black Sunday" event on February 1 was the peak of leveraged destruction. Each subsequent liquidation event has been smaller, indicating progressive deleveraging — the market is wringing out excessive speculation. CoinDesk also reports that short-term holders are realizing approximately $500 million in daily losses, confirming that capitulation is actively underway.

However, $468 million in daily liquidations remains elevated by historical standards, and the 93% long-side skew suggests that dip-buying with leverage remains a popular — and currently losing — strategy. Until liquidation volumes drop to negligible levels and the long/short ratio normalizes, the deleveraging process isn't complete.

Derivatives Deep Dive — Funding Rates, Open Interest, and the Long/Short Divide

Binance perpetual futures data as of 13:13 KST reveals a nuanced picture of positioning across major assets. Despite the brutal price action, BTC funding rates remain slightly positive at 0.0057%, indicating that longs are still paying shorts to maintain their positions. ETH funding is similarly positive but lower at 0.0026%. LINK stands at 0.0052%.

The more telling signal comes from assets with negative funding: SOL at -0.0041%, XRP at -0.0033%, AVAX at -0.0072%, and DOT at -0.0047%. Negative funding means short sellers are paying longs — a sign of bearish dominance in those specific markets. AVAX's deeply negative rate is particularly notable, reflecting concentrated short interest.

Open interest tells its own story. BTC futures on Binance carry $5.1 billion in open interest with a 71/29 long-to-short ratio (2.45:1). ETH holds $3.3 billion at 72.8% long. But the most extreme skew belongs to SOL: despite negative funding, 76.6% of positions are long with a 3.27:1 ratio against just $796M in OI. This mismatch — overwhelmingly bullish positioning combined with negative funding and falling prices — sets up conditions for further liquidation cascades if SOL continues to decline.

The BNB funding rate sitting at exactly 0.0000% is notable, suggesting near-perfect equilibrium between longs and shorts. Combined with its flat 24-hour price action (+0.01%), BNB appears to be one of the few major assets where the market has reached temporary consensus.

Whale Tracker — Strategy's 100th Purchase vs. the $425 Million Binance Deposit

Large holder behavior during extreme fear periods often provides the most useful forward-looking signals — and right now, the whale data is profoundly mixed.

The headline: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) completed its 100th Bitcoin purchase, acquiring 592 BTC for $39.8 million according to CoinGape. The company's total holdings now stand at 717,722 BTC — worth roughly $45.3 billion at current prices but acquired at an average cost of approximately $76,020. That puts Strategy's unrealized loss at an estimated $6.5 billion or more. The continued buying in the face of staggering paper losses is either visionary conviction or a deepening of an already precarious position, depending on whom you ask.

The broader whale data is more encouraging. Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance reports that wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated over 70,000 BTC since the start of February. Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC bought an estimated 53,000 BTC (~$4 billion) in a single recent week. This is the kind of accumulation pattern that historically precedes major market turning points — large, patient capital entering while sentiment is at its worst.

On the other side of the ledger, HedgeCo reports that a large whale — believed to be Garrett Jin — deposited 6,318 BTC ($425 million) to Binance. Large exchange deposits are generally interpreted as sell signals, since assets moved to exchange hot wallets are typically being positioned for liquidation. A deposit of this magnitude represents meaningful potential sell pressure and warrants continued on-chain monitoring.

The divergence between accumulating whales and depositing whales is not unusual at market inflection points. It reflects a genuine disagreement among the largest market participants about whether current prices represent a buying opportunity or a way station to lower levels.

Expert Outlook — The $38,000 Bear Case vs. the 1–2 Year Bull Thesis

Rarely have professional analysts been this divided on Bitcoin's trajectory. The spectrum runs from $28,000 to calling current levels a generational buying opportunity.

On the bearish extreme, Barry Bannister, analyst at Stifel, laid out a case for Bitcoin reaching $38,000. Per CoinDesk, Bannister's "Benjamin Button" analysis connects the trough points from every major BTC drawdown since 2010 — the -93% crash of 2011, the -84% decline of 2015, the -83% bear market of 2018, and the -76% drop of 2022. His conclusion: "Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin super-bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of ~$38K."

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, initially drew headlines — and backlash — by suggesting Bitcoin could fall to $10,000. He subsequently revised his target to $28,000, telling CoinDesk: "The post-2008 buy-the-dip era may be ending." His thesis centers on mean reversion and the possibility that equity markets have peaked, which would drag risk assets including Bitcoin significantly lower.

Offering a counterpoint is Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck. In a Benzinga interview, Sigel warned bluntly: "There is no CEO of Bitcoin, there will be no bailout." Yet far from bearish, he argued that this correction is structurally different from prior bear markets. Despite a 50% price decline, realized volatility has dropped roughly 50% compared to 2022. Thirteen nations now conduct Bitcoin mining at the central government level. And Crypto.com recently secured preliminary approval for a U.S. federal custody bank charter. Sigel's assessment: building a position at current levels is "increasingly attractive on a 1–2 year horizon."

Scenario Analysis and Forward Outlook

Short-Term (1 Month): Consolidation Most Likely

Combining technical indicators with historical precedent, the highest-probability scenario for the next month is Bitcoin consolidating in the $58,000–$68,000 range. Support for this view includes: the RSI below 30 historically leading to months of sideways action before trending higher; ETF outflows decelerating but not yet reversing to inflows; and the Fear & Greed Index remaining in extreme fear territory for an extended period.

Bull scenario: ETF outflows reverse to net inflows (particularly IBIT), whale accumulation intensifies, and a dovish Fed signal or favorable macro development catalyzes a push above $68,000 toward a $75,000–$80,000 test. Trigger: weekly ETF net inflows, Fear & Greed recovery above 25.

Bear scenario: ETF outflows reaccelerate, Strategy's mounting unrealized losses trigger corporate credit stress or forced selling fears, and a global equity correction compounds the pressure. In this case, a test of $55,000–$58,000 becomes likely. In the extreme scenario outlined by Stifel's Bannister, $38,000 remains on the table.

Medium-Term (3–6 Months): Macro Is the Swing Factor

Over the next quarter, the Federal Reserve's rate path, regulatory developments ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms, and global liquidity flows will be the dominant variables. Structurally, the market's institutional infrastructure is stronger than ever — 13 countries mining BTC at the national level, regulated ETFs providing easy access, and firms like Crypto.com advancing toward federal banking charters. These foundations don't disappear during drawdowns; they tend to accelerate the pace of recovery when sentiment turns. Spoted Crypto will continue providing weekly macro correlation analysis throughout this critical period.

What Investors Should Watch

• Fear & Greed recovery above 15, then 25: An exit from extreme fear is the earliest possible reversal signal. Recovery above 25 would offer a more credible confirmation of sentiment shift.
• First weekly ETF net inflow: After five consecutive weeks of outflows, any week of net inflows — especially into IBIT — would mark a potential inflection point for institutional sentiment.
• BTC $63,000 support: Today's Binance low of $63,101 is the critical near-term floor. A decisive break below opens the path to $58,000. Holding above keeps the $68,000–$70,000 range in play.
• Strategy's financial position: With 717,722 BTC at an average cost of $76,020, an extended stay below that level raises questions about the company's balance sheet stability — a risk that could ripple across the entire market.
• On-chain follow-through from whale deposits: The 6,318 BTC ($425M) deposited to Binance needs monitoring. If it's sold, expect short-term price pressure. If it remains unexecuted, the sell signal was a false alarm.
• Stablecoin volume normalization: USDC and USD1 dominating Binance volume rankings signals peak risk-off. When stablecoin trading volume declines relative to BTC and ETH volume, it indicates capital rotating back into risk assets.
• RSI recovery above 30: A move back above the 30 threshold on the 14-day RSI would serve as a technical bottom confirmation signal.
• Funding rate convergence: Watch for negative funding rates on BTC (currently slightly positive at 0.0057%) — a flip to negative would suggest short interest has overwhelmed longs, a classic precondition for short squeezes and reversals.

In an extreme fear environment like this, the priority for most market participants should be reducing leverage and maintaining cash reserves. Historically, periods like these have eventually rewarded patient, long-term investors — but the word "eventually" has sometimes meant months of further pain. A dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach remains the most risk-appropriate strategy for those looking to build positions. For actionable DCA frameworks and portfolio strategies, explore Spoted Crypto Premium Analysis.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a Fear & Greed Index reading of 8 mean?

A reading of 8 on the 0–100 scale represents extreme fear — a level reached only three times since the index launched in 2018. Previous occurrences aligned with the FTX collapse (June 2022) and COVID crash (March 2020). Historically, these extremes have coincided with seller exhaustion and eventual bottom formation, though recovery timelines varied from weeks (COVID) to months (FTX). The critical insight: extreme fear is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a bottom. Prices can remain depressed for extended periods even after sentiment hits rock bottom.

What happens if Bitcoin ETF outflows continue?

Bitcoin spot ETFs have become the primary vehicle for institutional capital flow into crypto. The current $3.8 billion, five-week outflow streak directly reflects institutional de-risking. A comparable episode in February 2025 saw $5 billion exit over five weeks, after which BTC dropped further to $75,000. The encouraging sign is that weekly outflow velocity has declined from $1.49 billion at peak to $316 million most recently — suggesting the worst of institutional selling may be behind us. The definitive turn signal will be a week of net inflows, particularly into BlackRock's IBIT.

Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?

Professional opinion is deeply split. VanEck's Matthew Sigel views current levels as increasingly attractive for 1–2 year positioning, citing structurally lower volatility and growing national-level adoption. Stifel's Barry Bannister warns of a potential drop to $38,000 based on historical trough analysis, while Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone has flagged $28,000 as a target. The historical record from previous RSI sub-30 readings shows that buying at these extremes has been profitable on a 12–24 month horizon — but the entry-to-recovery path typically involves months of sideways price action. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) rather than lump-sum buying has historically reduced timing risk in these conditions.

What is the Kimchi Premium and what does 1.91% mean?

The Kimchi Premium measures how much more (or less) Bitcoin costs on Korean exchanges compared to global platforms. At +1.91%, it indicates mild domestic buying interest — far below the 10–20% premiums of the 2021 bull mania, yet still positive rather than negative. During extreme bear phases, the Kimchi Premium can flip negative (a "reverse premium"), meaning Korean traders are selling below global prices — a sign of acute local capitulation. The current +1.91% suggests Korean markets are in a watchful but not panicked state, consistent with the global wait-and-see mood.

Sources

• $61 Million Bitcoin Whale Liquidated on HTX as Sentiment Back at Extreme Fear, CoinDesk
• Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $3.8 Billion in Historic Five-Week Outflow Streak, CoinDesk
• Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $4.5B Year-to-Date, Yahoo Finance
• Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends to 22 Days, CryptBull
• Bitcoin's 14-Day RSI Falls Below 30 for Third Time Ever, CoinDesk
• Strategy Makes 100th BTC Purchase, CoinGape
• VanEck's Matthew Sigel: There Will Be No Bailout for Bitcoin, Benzinga
• Stifel Predicts Bitcoin Crash to $38,000, CoinDesk
• Mike McGlone Softens Bitcoin Downside Target to $28,000, CoinDesk
• The $425 Million Bitcoin Move to Binance, HedgeCo
• Bitcoin Whales Are Buying Again, Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high volatility and the risk of total loss of principal. All investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and risk tolerance. Data cited reflects conditions as of February 24, 2026, 13:13 KST, and may differ from real-time prices.