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Bitcoin ETFs Attract Billions Despite Price Slump; Citi Projects $143,000 Target

Bitcoin ETFs Attract Billions Despite Price Slump; Citi Projects $143,000 Target

Despite a challenging year marked by negative returns for Bitcoin, its spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have witnessed substantial inflows, signaling strong investor conviction. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone has garnered over $25 billion in 2025, outperforming even gold ETFs in terms of capital attracted, though not in performance. This resilience has led Citigroup to set an optimistic "base case" price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin within the next twelve months, citing potential regulatory tailwinds and continued ETF demand.

Key Takeaways

  • BlackRock's IBIT ranks sixth among all ETFs for inflows in 2025, despite a negative return.
  • Bitcoin ETFs have shown remarkable investor resilience, with total assets under management declining minimally despite significant price drawdowns.
  • Citigroup forecasts a potential Bitcoin price of $143,000 in 12 months, driven by ETF demand and regulatory developments.

Investor Resilience Amidst Price Declines

Even as Bitcoin experienced a notable price slump in 2025, with returns turning negative, investors poured billions into Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT, for instance, secured over $25 billion in inflows, positioning it as the sixth-largest ETF by inflows for the year. This occurred even as the fund posted a negative return of 9.6%. In contrast, the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), which gained 65% in 2025, attracted less capital than IBIT.

This trend highlights a significant level of investor conviction, with analysts like Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noting that "If you can do $25 billion in bad year, imagine the flow potential in good year." Data indicates that the recent Bitcoin correction was not driven by ETF outflows; instead, ETF holders have remained largely steadfast. BlackRock's IBIT has even increased its market share within the Bitcoin ETF space during this period.

Citigroup's Optimistic Outlook

Adding to the positive sentiment, Citigroup has established a "base case" price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin within the next twelve months. Analysts at the Wall Street bank attribute this projection to several factors, including anticipated further inflows into crypto ETFs and a generally positive outlook for traditional equity markets. They identify $70,000 as a crucial support level.

Citigroup also outlined potential "bear" and "bull" cases. The bear case suggests a drop to $78,500, potentially triggered by a global recession. Conversely, the bull case envisions Bitcoin soaring to $189,000, driven by increased end-investor demand. The analysts specifically mentioned potential U.S. digital asset legislation in the second quarter as a catalyst for increased adoption and fund flows.

Bitcoin Dominance and Market Dynamics

Coinciding with strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market capitalization has climbed to 60%, a level not seen since mid-November. This surge in dominance occurred alongside a volatile period where Bitcoin briefly touched $90,000 before retreating. Despite recent market fluctuations, implied volatility for Bitcoin remains relatively low, suggesting subdued risk pricing.

Sources